Dawe On Track to Win — but Every Vote Will Count
Posted by auroracitizen on October 11, 2010
Council Watch #17 – letter to the editor of the Auroran
If it was not already obvious, based on my second sign count one can only conclude that we have a very close Mayoral race on our hands.
I surveyed every quadrant of the town and took a representative sampling of signs located on private property.
Morris won four areas, Dawe won four areas and they tied in one area. You can’t get much closer than that.
I counted nearly 300 signs and the results are surprisingly consistent with the September 19th sign survey.
October 6th sign count results:
- Geoff Dawe – 46% – drop of 3%
- Phyllis Morris – 33% – drop of 3%
- Nigel Kean – 13% – essentially the same
- Roger Clowater – 8% – increase of 5%*
*Clowater’s increase can largely be attributed to the fact that I counted his home area in the October 6th count, which doubled the amount of signs he previously had on September 19th.
Winning 40% of the total votes cast on October 25th will likely win the mayoral race. If we assume 12,500 total votes cast then 4,800 is the magic number, however I also think that because Phyllis is tracking at 33% of signs counted, a slightly lower vote count could win the day.
If we extrapolate from the October 6th sign count percentages noted above, the vote count on October 25th would be as follows:
- Geoff Dawe: 5,796 — Our next Mayor
- Phyllis Morris: 4,152 — This predicted result is in around where I would expect given that Phyllis won 5,208 votes last time around
- Nigel Kean: 1,600 — This is consistent with the September 19th sign count results
- Roger Clowater: 952 — Based on the nature of Roger’s sign distribution I suspect that he may not win as many votes as projected here.
- Miloslav Prikryl: — No signs were counted
The next logical question is how and if the issue of “strategic voting” will enter into the minds of voters who are hoping for change at the Town Hall. This has been a topic of major discussion in the Toronto election however it does not appear to have entered into our local discussions to the extent that one might expect given the number of candidates.
We should be thankful that we have so many people who care enough about this town that they are prepared to invest so much time, effort and energy into an election campaign and quite frankly I can’t fault anyone for supporting who they feel is best suited for the job at hand, however that said, we also need to be prepared to live with the outcome of our collective reasoning for another four years.
While Phyllis Morris recently stated that Aurora has “set the gold standard of democracy” others (including me – a former Morris supporter) have come to quite a different conclusion as a result of the senior staff turnover (6 of 8 senior staff positions have left the town’s employment), the mayor has been instructed to “cease and desist” in her comments related to an internationally regarded ethicist and expert on corporate governance who was released from his responsibilities as the town’s first Integrity Commissioner the day after his first decision was announced publicly. This was explained as a “coincidence” by the mayor which garnered negative media coverage in the Star, Globe, National Post, Sun, CBC and in the local media.
We have had one well-respected councillor quit, two (our most educated) will not run again as a result of their experience and one councillor has felt compelled to sue her fellow councillors (that doesn’t happen too often).
The town staff has continued to grow at the same rate as it has in the past ten years despite the severe economic times that have compelled governments and businesses around the world to exercise greater financial restraint.
While hundreds of thousands of dollars have been spent on a jazz festival, parades, a cultural center, recreation facilities, trails, trees, and legal fees no money has been directed towards the food bank or the region’s affordable housing efforts. The Mayor actually feels that spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in order to compel one councillor to say sorry is money well spent, while at the same time she turns a blind eye to the actions of others; including herself, who I have reason to believe broke the very same section of the code of conduct as she has accused Councillor Buck of breaking.
From my perspective, anyone who is given $200 million of our tax dollars to spend over a four-year period can point to accomplishments but for me the real question to ask is if you feel that your elected officials are representing our town in the most professional and most effective manner possible ? Aurora’s politics have been characterised as dysfunctional, poisoned, poorly informed and petty for years, however it is once again up to all of us to determine what is required to set a new course.
I can only hope that those people who take the time to vote, also take the time to become well-informed in an effort to separate fact from fiction which is no small task in our municipal arena.
Good luck to all and may the best candidate win.
Richard Johnson
Aurora Citizen 
Richard Johnson said
OK, my election prediction was wrong, so sue me ! (just kidding)
THANK YOU Aurora ! My faith in democracy and free speech has been restored.
21 votes for Pirri made a huge difference for our town. Every vote counted.
M Kpb said
You must all be former Mayor Tim Jones friends? Four years ago Aurora voted NOT to re-elect him. Yet it seems to me like it is the same just that now he is running again with a different face. If you don’t like the performance of the current Mayor, just like four years ago you get to vote for change. Aurora already voted four years ago to say goodbye to Tim. Cloudy waters make it more difficult to see clearly.
Tell the citizens of Aurora is it true that some tactics used (just read as posted on this site) to attempt to control democracy or the election process were to tell Mayoral candidates to stop their campaign to support your choice ?? Really boys, time to tell the truth.
And I don’t know all the facts but some boys (the supporters ?) have just been hauled into a lawsuit by the Mayor just this past Friday Oct 22, 2010. Who knows whether it is the Mayor (who apparently has another lawsuit) that has crossed the line or the “supporters”, either way the facts will probably be revealed in court and it is dismal and makes for bad politics for Aurora. Really couldn’t you all have found more constructive actions to fill your time? Is it control and power ?? Lawsuits are damaging and costly and there is a better way to resolve conflict. Mature and reasonable people can usually negotiate a resolution and it is time to step up and be that mature and reasonable person that will resolve this without leaving a legacy of “legal battles” for the town of Aurora tax payers. This in my opinion is truly unfortunate that the acts of a few will tarnish this town. “They” talk about integrity and accountability ????
It has to be said the waters have definitely been muddied but hopefully the intelligent citizens of Aurora will see through it all.
It is my conclusion that this is not good for an election and democracy for the town of Aurora.
Anonymous said
The “legacy of legal battles” is Morris’s not citizens’.
anonymous said
who not to vote for…
chris ballard’s pledge of allegiance can be seen on phyllis’ website
sandra H. will defend sher by saying that she is sooo misunderstood
darryl moore was seen at the last council meeting whispering in the corners with rebecca beaton, a known morrisite
Darryl Moore said
LOL
Heck I’ll do you one better than that. I actually went out and drank beer with all three of these people after that very same council meeting.
I wont make any apologies for who I talk to. Especially when I am campaigning.
I am staunchly independent, and proudly so.
I have a full website with more opinions and thoughtful analysis than any other candidate. I am happy to put my stated positions up next to any one’s conjecture any day.
This is exactly the sort of thing I was talking about on my Blog regarding a functional council.
Weather report just in….. Cloudy with a chance of mud…..
fed up said
Darryl–you say on your website that a 0% tax increase is impossible–the mayor prides herself on only raising taxes 2.9% last year–Here is my question–I am a senior living on a fixed pension–I did not get a 2.9% increase in my pension last year- Just where do you think I am getting the money to pay for any tax increase? I already spend over $4000 a year on property taxes– This will be money that I will not have to spend at the local merchant’s cash register–this will only futher hurt the small business person in this town–I shop locally (I mean in the town of Aurora)but the town is getting my money instead of the local merchant–it is a never ending cirlce of doom that persists in our society–the senior on fixed income gets screwed as his savings is eaten away by needless tax increases and his income never goes up to meet you politician’s demands–the madness must stop
Darryl Moore said
Hello Fed Up.
I have composed a rather lengthy reply which I have posted on my website. I hope it sufficiently answers your question.
http://www.darrylmoore.ca/2010/10/controlling-taxes.html
Thank You,
Darryl Moore
Anonymous said
To Darryl Moore:
If you are elected and you show up every week, use your heart and your mind and the good sense the Lord blessed you with, you will have earned my respect, even when I disagree with your decisions. I don’t give a damn who you drink beer with. Also, please keep blogging, I like reading what you have to say and I appreciate that you give thoughtful answers to the questions posed to you.
Anonymous 6:21
It is my fervent wish that after next Monday there will be no more “Morrisites”; Phyllis Morris will not be hiding in the rafters at Town Hall pulling puppet strings, I don’t have it in me to give the woman that much credit. I don’t have a crystal ball either, but my gut instinct is that Ms. Morris’ political career will become a footnote in Aurora’s history. I view this last desperate act as her giving each and every one of us the Pierre Elliot Trudeau salute! I won’t forget that, not in four years or eight, never, never, never. I don’t think anyone else will either. You know what political poison is, right? For now and for a long time to come, its name is likely to be Phyllis Morris.
As for Sandra and Ms. St. Kitts—well, I am actually a little disappointed that Sher wasn’t able to run, it would have given voters the opportunity to to send her a message one way or the other, loud and clear. Instead, I think what we have to look forward to is another four years of escalating self promotion of a campaign that was launched a long time ago. I don’t know what to say about Sandra……..other than if she thinks that being a mouthpiece for Sher is all that the job encompasses, or that the two of them can share the same chair at the table, then she is going to be very overwhelmed and disappointed by the venture. Sher is all about Sher, even rose coloured glasses can’t hide the glare from that spotlight. As for Chris Ballard—–EDAC, what more needs to be said?
To Fed Up:
If any politican ever tells you that they won’t raise your taxes, you go ahead and call him a low down dirty lying son-of-a-b—-!!! Then don’t vote for him, not because he’s a liar but because he had the gall to insult your intelligence!
Best regards to all,
Luckywife
fed up said
you still have not answered my question–Where in the heck do you expect me go get this money to pay for a tax increase?–I do not have a money tree growing in my back or front yard–Why can’t politicians answer the question that is asked instead of flying off with a BS response that does not adress my concern?–with no income increase and everything else going up (hydro, taxes, HST, Harper’s share, McGuinty’s share my wallet is getting thinner and thinner and nobody seems to care–$80 a week now for taxes–time to move somewhere else that has a lower tax rate?
Darryl Moore said
I’m sorry Fed up. I don’t have the answer to that question. I found those provincial programs, and I promised I would look for places the town could trim costs, and I promised to see what the town might be able to do to also help people in your situation. I’m afraid I don’t know what more I can do. If other people have other ideas I would certainly support them and try to help, but so far this is the best I have been able to come up with.
Anonymous said
A word of advice to Mr. Moore. Take “promise” out of your lexicon for as long as you may be a politician. We have had 4 sorry years of so-called promises. I have never understood why politicians use the word as it never lives up to its meaning post-election.
Anonymous said
In my wildest imaginings I could never have envisioned a scenario such as this being played out, at any level of government. Not in this country.
I thought that I was past the age where I could be surprised or shocked by the desperate vindictiveness of an outgoing politician that refuses to go with some shreds of dignity and goodwill from the people left to pay for their hubris. I am left to wonder at the collective intelligence of the people that support this or allow it to happen.
How- can- they –not- know? This will become so much bigger than the Town of Aurora or the voters that define it. This will explode onto the national stage. How can it not? Any politician or party at any level of government who would undertake or champion an action like this grossly underestimates the intelligence and the will of their electorate. That Canadians will sit still and be silent, forfeit their right to criticize and chastise their government or allow that right to be stolen from them is simply unimaginable.
I have never doubted or wavered in my belief that Aurora will have a different mayor come October 26. I did not have that same conviction about some of the incumbents. I am sick at the thought that anyone who would not disavow an action like this could be allowed to swear an oath or be a part of forming any sort of government organization whose sole purpose is to represent the taxpayers.
My heart goes out to the moderators of the AC, I have no doubt whatsoever, that they will prevail or even that they will be compensated for their expense. The toll this will take on them personally and their families cannot be measured in dollars and cents. What this will cost the taxpayers can be, and it will be steep.
Citizen dissatisfaction with their elected officials is hardly unique to Aurora. This council’s final actions are. For years citizens have been asking their provincial government to allow the Ontario Ombudsman to review Municipal governments across this province. The Municipal Act is deeply flawed; the province will eventually accede to the wishes of voters. Soon, they will have no choice; they have their own election battle looming. Wouldn’t Aurora be a perfect test case for Andre Marin and his SORT team to sink their teeth into? Shame! Shame! Shame!
There is so much more that I want to say, but, I am still so upset, and I am finding it difficult to form coherent sentences to articulate my disgust.
Sincerely,
Luckywife…………..My name is Melanie.
Question: said
When did we all move to Vaughan?!
David Heard said
We the citizens of Aurora will send out a ripple.
Every stone, cast by those who band together to mask truth, will be picked up and used to build a new Aurora.
A community they wish they could build.
They chose to break down spirits instead of building foundations.
New people who are builders will work together and champion working for a cause.
A cause that makes us strong because we were inclusive.
Everyone has something to offer this little Goddess called Aurora.
A new dawn will come Oct.25.
I believe in our citizens
I believe in change.
I believe the hurting will be reduced with a vision,and respect for those with ideas and knowledge.
A ripple is starting…..a wave of positive is the result.
THE AURA IS COMING>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Sprite said
Dear Luckywife:
You and your friends might be able to help. Evelyn is kind of swamped because of legal costs and will not ask for assistance.
The majority of Aurorans said
Melanie:
That was a very elegant and powerful statement.
fed up said
well said luckywife (Melanie)–but this needs to get into the papers so that all voters in this town can see what she is capable of resorting to just to get re-elected–please send this to The Auroran
Matt Maddocks said
Melanie – excellent post, very well stated. I too am shocked and disgusted by this latest bully tactic by Morris. The free speech issue hits a big nerve with me. Yesterday, as I attended the debate, I couldn’t help but feel that it was somewhat ironic that here was Morris, sitting and telling us what a great person she is, in The Aurora Legion Hall. The Legion is a building used and funded by men and women who both served in, and support our Canadian military forces, both past and present. The veterans who fought in those previous wars and conflicts fought to protect and preserve our way of life in our home and native land. That way of life includes so many freedoms, not the least of which is freedom of speech. Our Charter guarantees this. It guarantees everyone the right to express their opinion, both verbal and written, and includes the right to criticize the government, without fear of litigation. Morris has either forgotten this, or perhaps believes she is above the Charter. Shame on her for thumbing her nose at those who fought to provide us and protect those freedoms. This is Canada Ms. Morris, not North Korea, China, or Afghanistan, countries whose governments would likely applaud your recent actions. If she believes that this latest stunt will silence her critics, then she is sadly mistaken.
Shame too on each of her gang for marching along side on this attack against free speech, blind servants they are.
Kron Prinz Ferdinand said
Can someone tell me which councillors are Morrisites and which aren’t? From my perspective, I’m voting for neither Morris or Buck this time around because I feel that both were equally accountable for the state that the Council found itself in. All i know is that if Bob McRoberts throws his hands up in despair, then no one from current council deserves to return.
however, I don’t know which people running for council are pro-Morris and which are normal people looking to do a job for the community.
Anonymous said
Depends. What do you think would define them as a Morrisite?
Campaigning for her?
Supporting everything council did?
Supporting some things council did?
Supporting the code of conduct? Integrity commissioner?
Not liking Buck?
Serving on advisory committees?
Supporting the Official Plan?
Supporting the cultural centre?
It all depends see!
Anonymous said
Here as far as I know are a few candidates not in that camp.
Paul Pirri
Michael Thompson
Brian Duff
John Abel
Roy Cohen
Kron Prinz Ferdinand said
Anony:
I see what you mean, but I’m aware that a group of folks are running as a bloc. So..who makes up this bloc?
Robert the Bruce said
Of the incumbants running, they are all part of GoS except Buck.
So, using your logic – which I agree with by the way, no incumbants will get my vote.
As far as who supports Morris in the rest, will it matter? She won’t be in the chair.
Fuimus
David Heard said
I have spoken to all but one,that being Mr.Cohen.
The rest of the list have my vote….and maybe Roy when I get a chance to talk to him in person.
David Heard said
Roy Cohen will NOT have my support.
Sapiens said
To David Heard:
On Oct-16 you were considering Cohen for your vote. On Oct-17 you’ve changed your mind. What happened? You had a chance to talk to him and was dismayed by his response(s)? I am also considering him, and would like to know, since I never talked to him either.
Thx / Sapiens
evelyn.buck said
Kron Prinz Ferdinand,
No matter that you seem to be little informed and in need of being told who’s who,and regardless of whether or not you vote for me.
If I am once again trusted, on the basis of my proven integrity, competence and commitment to the best interest of the people of Aurora and elected on October 25th , I will represent you and Robert The Bruce also to the best of my ability.
David Heard said
Too much time and company spent with members I will not vote for.
Anonymous said
Kron Prinz:
I won’t advise you whom you should vote for. That is a personal decision that you must make. All I can tell you is to use your heart and your mind coupled with your gut instinct. Do the research, choose whomever you feel will best represent the community you want for yourself and your family. That is the most and the least any individual can do on election day.
Regards,
Luckywife
Anonymous said
So Kron Prinz says he sees Buck and Morris as sharing the blame and Buck comes in and attacks him for being ill-informed.
Nice way to win over voters.
Anonymous said
“So Kron Prinz says he sees Buck and Morris as sharing the blame and Buck comes in and attacks him for being ill-informed.
Nice way to win over voters.”
I didn’t see any “attack”.
It must really drive Morris crazy to contemplate that she’s going down in flames and Buck will probably get back in. She who laughs last and all that…
Anonymous said
To Anonymous 7:40 pm.
I’ll grant you that Evelyn is not one to mince words, but I don’t really see where she has “attacked” the Kron Prinz. More a statement of fact, dontchathink!, considering that we are just one week away from the election. No matter, it’s only too late after the polls close! Kron Prinz: Check out the candidate pages, see which ones have websites, read the Auroran, they have all had their ads in there at one time or another. Read through this site and and any others you can find. Pick up the phone and call or email them if have to. Most importantly, decide what you want and expect from your Town Council, then choose only those whom you think will exemplify it. Don’t like Morris or Buck, well then there are four other candidates for Mayor and 18 more Council. Get Crackin!
Regards,
Luckywife
Kron Prinz Ferdinand said
Thank you all for the clarification. See you at the polls.
Richard Johnson said
Don’t forget to consider Milton Hart… he could be a great representative for youth. You have to love a guy that was on the Jamaican bobsled team !!!
Anonymous said
I tried to post a reply to Richard Johnson’s comment of Oct 19 at 9:49 pm about Milton Hart 2 days ago but it was not posted so I will try again.
I see no correlation between the Jamaican bobsled team and Milton Hart’s credentials as a potential councillor.
I also would like to mention that Milton Hart canvassed in Morris’ camp last election (as you should know Mr. Johnson) so I am advising voters to be sure of just where his allegiances lie.
I hope this post is published this time and that it was not censored last time.
Mr. Spock said
Newsflash from Earth to whatever planet Richard Johnston currently finds himself on:
Signs don’t vote, people do.
Richard Johnson said
Ya, I guess you’re right… signs put themselves up.
Point taken.
For You Shall Know Them by their Fruit... said
And vote we will!
fed up said
from the Snowball Queen’s article in the Auroran–how is it that she is a registered voter in this town–from the looks of all the articles in this current issue, it looks like there will be a vote splitting result come Oct 25th–too bad
Thanks Will Be Given Come October said
Looks like the condo on Yonge Street got registered. It did didn’t it Sher?
David Heard said
I support Geoff Dawe for Mayor.
He will bring positive energy back to Aurora.
Sapiens said
to David Heard:
The only way to help someone’s candidacy is to volunteer / donate for their campaign. I am sure the candidate you support will appreciate any help.
David Heard said
To Sapiens
I have a sign on my residence, on my car, and have taken time to set back up many of Mr. Dawes knocked down signs.
I am doing my part and spreading the word.
Anything else I can do I will gladly do for Mr Dawe.
fed up said
SHE’S BACK–the Snowball Queen strikes again in this week’s Auroran–made me sick–I just couldn’t finish her lengthy verbal praise of her majesty–she just doesn’t get it–the voters in this town have lost confidence in the current administration–that is the bottom line–loss of confidence
Broderick Epps said
Got to love Ms. St Kitts call for “truth,accountability,and integrity”
This from the same person who two years ago after receiving town monies, ignored repeated calls for an accounting of an event to raise further money for the July 1, parade.Where did all the money go? Who knows the beacon of truth,accountability and integrity won’t tell.This is the issue Evelyn Buck took to task and ultimately resulted in the first integrity commissioner seeing through all the bullcrap and getting fired. Money well spent I guess in the eye of another Morris shill Dave Tomlinson.The only thing missing in this issue of the Auroran was the Morris go to Environment Expert endorsement of a slate of councillors. Sue (the gas guzzling,Escalade driving environment maven)Walmer was missing in action…thank goodness.
Stephanie said
I strongly resent my tax dollars going to the Mayor’s friends, with or without any so-called “accountability”. It’s simply WRONG.
Anonymous said
I have watched this council on TV for 4 years. I honestly, sincerely cannot believe there are people out there who actually support Morris or any of the other incumbents. Really, it baffles me. 14 more sleeps people – Goodness and integrity will prevail.
Anonymous said
“Goodness and Integrity will prevail” well said Anonymous 3:43.
All well and good,however if you stand for what you believe in you can get the shaft.
Rumour has hit the streets that David Heard is not in the local paper for that reason.
It seems Dick could write what he wanted but David could not post a sign.
Talk about censure and free speech going south.
Winters Comin said
Richard … Urging Aurora town’s folk to vote responsibly is our only hope in the next election.
Stats can be manipulated altho I do admire you for doing the sign count.
That being said, GD needs to take a leaf from PM’s 2006 election book and check in at every polling station on election night. One thing’s for sure, he’ll find the MorMac machine there. Will it be a protocol issue they are ensuring or will it be a last minute campaigning strategy to perhaps catch the undecided vote? hmmmm. You decide. Perception is all in the eye of the beholder. Better be sure, that if GD does it, and the MorMac machine loses, we’re going to need a special issue of earplugs … ’cause the noise is going to be deafening. Betcha they scream fowl, ask for a recount, and complain that GD was using unfair election tactics to gain votes. Just watch. Go GD Go!!! I’ll drive him around.
I do want to thank Anonymous for helping me to make up mind … EB for councillor; GD for Mayor. BTW, has anyone seen Waldo (aka Helen Power)?
…. Happy Turkey Birding … wc.
Anonymous said
But isn’t it illegal to campaign at the polls?
One who Knows said
GD , needs to ramp it up a notch, still some great places to put signs , get on the radio and geneally get in the face of every Tom ,Dick and Harry this next couple of weeks, He can do it !!!!!!!
Richard Johnson said
It is illegal to campaign at polls, but the point is well taken that we are facing “crunch time.”
For those of us that feel that change is required we have to realise that action is required. Sitting back and letting events “unfold as they should” is not necessarily the safest strategy. We need to be engaged and share the importance of facts over fiction.
When I read page 15 of today’s Auroran and saw a letter from a Morris supporter that suggested that my question regarding staff turnover has been answered and that the $30 I paid for the answer was “a bargain” I have to wonder how many Morris supporters create their own fantasy world in order to survive the onslaught of facts.
This is all getting more whacky by the minute and I can assure you that you don’t know the half of it.
Best regards to everyone that cares about this town with at least a shred of integrity.
Sapiens said
GD needs volunteers. Would you, Winters, One Who Knows, Richard consider volunteering? We all need to ramp it up and help if we can and if we really want a change… my opinion…
Anonymous said
“This is all getting more whacky by the minute and I can assure you that you don’t know the half of it.”
Do tell, Richard. Share with us the other ‘half’,
Anonymous said
I have noticed this weekend that the majority of Geoff Dawe’s signs seem to have disappeared from my neighbourhood. A couple of weeks ago he had at least 2 posted on each traffic circle and others along the streets in between. Today when were out, we could only count a total of 3. Rather too much of a coincidence that only his signs have disappeared, don’t you think? I suggest he gets out to the northeast to see for himself and take whatever action he feels is appropriate.
For You Shall Know Them by their Fruit... said
Some idiot keeps knocking down Evelyn’s at the bottom of Glass and Murray. Sign or no sign, alot of people will vote for Ev regardless; same goes for Geoff and the other candidates.
Richard Johnson said
It could be that requests from home owners have required that signs from main streets are relocated. That is not uncommon at this stage in any given campaign given that new signs are not likely ordered late in the game. It’s a good sign (for lack of a better term).
Robert the Bruce said
While I do not beleive that Richard’s sign count is an entirely accurate poll, perhaps this would be a good time for Nigel to wake up and smell the coffee. To be sure that Ms. Morris is not re-elected, I think at this time it would be prudent for Nigel and Roger to swallow their pride and their deposit and pull out of the race endorse Dawe.
Come on guys, you are not going to win. If you truly think that this town needs a new Mayor, the only way you will assure that will happen is to pull out.
Fuimus